Mortgage Market Primer (TD)

June 18, 2010

Mortgage Market Primer (TD)

If you have any interest in the nitty gritty of Canada’s mortgage industry, TD Securities’ Eric Lascelles has put out this fantastic market overview: Canadian Mortgage Market Primer

Here are some of the more notable points…

70% of Canadian lenders are deposit-taking institutions (Page 1)
5-year GICs and the Interest Rate Act are two reasons Canadian mortgage terms are usually five years or less (Page 5)
There is a difference between Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMs) and Variable Rate Mortgages (VRMs). Both have variable rates but the former has variable payments while the latter has “fixed” payments. (Page 5)
For any term over five years, the pre-payment penalty cannot be greater than three months interest once five years have elapsed. (Page 7)
“Given a mortgage delinquency rate of 0.44% and the assumption of a (pessimistic) recovery rate of 80%, this means that expected mortgage portfolio losses for Canadian lenders are less than 10 basis points per year for uninsured mortgages.” (Page 8)
About 50% of Canadian mortgages are insured. (Page 8)
“Even with an insured mortgage, the lending institution manages the mortgage, directly handling payment collection, foreclosure, and sale of the home, where applicable.” (Page 10)
29% of Canadian mortgages are securitized versus 60% in the U.S. (Page 10)

Mortgage-Securitization

$175 billion of the $275 billion in Canadian securitized mortgages (64%) are sold into the Canada Mortgage Bond (CMB) program. (Page 10)
Canadian borrowers can usually prepay 10-25% of their mortgage each year without penalty, but the average prepayment is less than 1%. (Page 11)
It is estimated that the Insured Mortgage Purchase Program (IMPP), which allowed the government to buy back mortgages during the credit crisis in 2008-2010, netted the government extra profit of roughly $187.5 million. (Page 11)
Lenders (or their agents) must continue servicing a mortgage after it’s sold into the CMB program—including assuming all pre-payment and uncovered default-related costs. Mortgage Insurance does not make lenders completely whole in the event of default. (Page 13)
The CMB program intentionally operates on a break-even basis (Page 14)
Mortgage defaults “would have to increase by three- to four-fold to compromise the profitability” of CMHC’s default insurance program. CMHC should have ~$8.8 billion in insurance retained earnings as a buffer for its insurance business in 2010. (Page 15)
Like any insurance business, CMHC’s is not completely without risk. (See Page 16)
The CMB program adds very little additional risk for CMHC. The underlying mortgages are already insured. (Page 15)
71% of mortgagors with CMHC insurance have “equity in their homes of more than 20%.” (Page 16)
“Over 40% of CMHC's total business in 2008 was in areas, or for housing options, that are less well served or not served at all by the private sector mortgage insurers.” (Page 17)

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Source: TD Securities

Posted in Mortgage Industry Reports

Comments

If you have any interest in the nitty gritty of Canada’s mortgage industry, TD Securities’ Eric Lascelles has put out this fantastic market overview: Canadian Mortgage Market Primer

Here are some of the more notable points…

70% of Canadian lenders are deposit-taking institutions (Page 1)
5-year GICs and the Interest Rate Act are two reasons Canadian mortgage terms are usually five years or less (Page 5)
There is a difference between Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMs) and Variable Rate Mortgages (VRMs). Both have variable rates but the former has variable payments while the latter has “fixed” payments. (Page 5)
For any term over five years, the pre-payment penalty cannot be greater than three months interest once five years have elapsed. (Page 7)
“Given a mortgage delinquency rate of 0.44% and the assumption of a (pessimistic) recovery rate of 80%, this means that expected mortgage portfolio losses for Canadian lenders are less than 10 basis points per year for uninsured mortgages.” (Page 8)
About 50% of Canadian mortgages are insured. (Page 8)
“Even with an insured mortgage, the lending institution manages the mortgage, directly handling payment collection, foreclosure, and sale of the home, where applicable.” (Page 10)
29% of Canadian mortgages are securitized versus 60% in the U.S. (Page 10)

Mortgage-Securitization

$175 billion of the $275 billion in Canadian securitized mortgages (64%) are sold into the Canada Mortgage Bond (CMB) program. (Page 10)
Canadian borrowers can usually prepay 10-25% of their mortgage each year without penalty, but the average prepayment is less than 1%. (Page 11)
It is estimated that the Insured Mortgage Purchase Program (IMPP), which allowed the government to buy back mortgages during the credit crisis in 2008-2010, netted the government extra profit of roughly $187.5 million. (Page 11)
Lenders (or their agents) must continue servicing a mortgage after it’s sold into the CMB program—including assuming all pre-payment and uncovered default-related costs. Mortgage Insurance does not make lenders completely whole in the event of default. (Page 13)
The CMB program intentionally operates on a break-even basis (Page 14)
Mortgage defaults “would have to increase by three- to four-fold to compromise the profitability” of CMHC’s default insurance program. CMHC should have ~$8.8 billion in insurance retained earnings as a buffer for its insurance business in 2010. (Page 15)
Like any insurance business, CMHC’s is not completely without risk. (See Page 16)
The CMB program adds very little additional risk for CMHC. The underlying mortgages are already insured. (Page 15)
71% of mortgagors with CMHC insurance have “equity in their homes of more than 20%.” (Page 16)
“Over 40% of CMHC's total business in 2008 was in areas, or for housing options, that are less well served or not served at all by the private sector mortgage insurers.” (Page 17)