Rates may be going up.  Rates may be going down.  This is the degree of certainty for interest rate predictions in the last two weeks.

The latest crystal gazing comes today from Bloomberg, which quotes ABN Amro as expecting a Bank of Canada rate cut, thanks to benign inflation and credit liquidity concerns.

C.J. Gavsie at BMO, however, adds that, “Traders have started to attach a higher probability to a rate cut this year, but my sense is the bank will stay on hold.”

Beata Caranci from TD is more hawkish:  “The central bank could very well return to the table with a [quarter percentage point] rate hike on Oct. 16.”

It’s worth noting again:  predicting interest rates is almost like playing the horses.  There’s a randomness and “house edge” that’s near impossible to overcome.  There may be people that can do it consistently well for years, but you almost never hear of them.

The safest bet is always a long-term view, and a mortgage strategy based on that view.

Last modified: April 25, 2014