- The drop in bond yields has been stunning the past two weeks. On Thursday the 5-year bond closed at 2.95%, the lowest yield in over 27 years! Can bond yields go much lower before bouncing? We’ve got no clue…but we’re glued to our monitors. (Chart from Bank of Canada.)
- Is Canada’s economy really that doomed?
- “No,” says Laurentian.
- “Yes” says Garth Turner. (Worth a read just to see Jonathan Chevreau call 40-year amortizations “atrocities.”)
- “No” says CIBC.
- Don’t count out the U.S. for long says the Leader-Post.
- The Calgary Real Estate Market Blog writes about how mortgage spreads might help real estate timing.
- MoneySense reminds us that our real estate boom is not indefinite. They note the average house would cost $10 million by 2037 if price gains maintained their pace of the last nine years.
- Lenders will tell Michael Jackson to “beat it” if he doesn’t start paying his mortgage.
- The average Vancouver detached house is now $921,000!
- CREA says “consumer confidence, employment and affordable interest rates” will keep Canada’s real estate market afloat in 2008.
- Canada’s ABCP debt restructuring is delayed again. Does anyone believe the investor committee’s deadlines anymore?
- Canadians have record non-mortgage debt but they’re still paying their bills on time. Equifax says Canada’s delinquency rate is now just 1.2%, versus 1.6% in 2005.
- As home prices keep falling, Americans now have more mortgage debt than home equity for the first time on record.
- Million Dollar Journey has an excellent Smith Manoeuvre resource page.
- The Times Colonist reminds us not underestimate closing costs.
- There are record foreclosures in the U.S. but it’s not anywhere near as bad here. In Toronto there are approximately 315 power of sale homes–about the same as last year.
- RBC gained market share last quarter as its mortgage volume increased 15% year-over-year. The jump was driven largely by “strong demand for home equity lending,” among other things.
- Desjardins had record profits in 2007, along with 7.4% growth in their mortgage business. The company is the dominant mortgage lender in Quebec, with a 39.2% market share.
- IMBA is accepting nominations for its Ontario “Broker Recognition Awards.” Nomination form.
Mortgage Planner Notes
- Mortgage Architect’s Marg Green says lenders are making “fewer exceptions on borderline deals.” She says, more and more, “They are sticking to their guidelines…”
- If you’re a mortgage planner, Abode Mortgage has a compelling “A” product suite. They pay appraisal costs up to $500, have solid rates, offer excellent compensation, and can underwrite deals as non-prime if they don’t fit “A” credit guidelines.
- Bridgewater Bank now does 2nd mortgages behind its first mortgages…to 95% loan-to-value and with 40-year amortizations.
- Did you know? Gifted down payments and borrowed closing costs are both acceptable under AIG’s Equity Assist program. Source: MyNext Mortgage
- Xceed’s self-insured Flex program is designed for self-employed borrowers. Its highlights:
- Gifted or borrowed downpayments are permitted
- 2nd or vendor-take-back mortgages are allowed behind Xceed’s first
- No NOA’s required
- Only one month of down payment verification and no proof of closing costs
- Registration can be in a company name (with a personal guarantee)
Last modified: April 25, 2014
Thanks for the mention guys!
Time to renew the mortgage. I’ve always done fixed rate, but am contemplating ARM. However, I’m concerned about ongoing inflation over the next few years. Does anyone know of reliable information on the behaviour of mortgage rates during inflationary recessions?
Hey Jay, take a look at the historical rates around 1980-82 on the Bank of Canada website, found here:
http://www.bankofcanada.ca/pdf/annual_page52_page53.pdf
That kind of answers your questions, not a rate below 12%.
Oh, but of course . . . “It’s different this time” . . . :)
Hi Jay,
By “inflationary recession” I suspect you mean stagflation (rising inflation and a slowing economy).
There have been very few cases of stagflation in modern times, with the most recent being back in the 1970’s. The “cure” was almost worse than the disease: significantly rising interest rates. The same solution would probably be applied by central banks today, but on a much smaller scale.
Hope this helps. I’ll keep an eye out for more comprehensive historical stats.
Cheers,
Rob