5-year bonds yield yields have bounced quite a bit (44 basis) points from their March 17 multi-decade lows. The 5-year bond is now at 3.18%–as of this writing.
Yesterday, 10-year bond yields had the biggest 1-day increase since May 2004.
Given that fixed rates are based on bond yields, this move could slow the fall in fixed rates–for now at least.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada’s Paul Jenkins is still talking rate cuts in the “near term.” Futures traders are pricing in a 1/4 point cut April 22. However, Bloomberg’s survey of 14 top economists puts the median projection at a 1/2% cut.
CIBC economist Benjamin Tal says, “Best-case scenario is no change over the next few months, with the real possibility of [the Bank of Canada] actually cutting rates. The risk of higher rates at this point is moderate at best.”
TD economist Eric Lascelles is more dovish: “There remains a lot of bad news out there, and plenty more rate cuts to come from central banks.”
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