These figures are based on a snapshot of overnight index swap (OIS) rates. OIS rates are basically a reflection of how traders are betting on the Bank of Canada’s future intentions. (Note: These are “implied” probabilities and not actual probabilities.)
It’s still worth noting, however, that Canada’s latest GDP and inflation numbers are strong. The BoC is basically being pulled in two directions. Which direction it picks, we won’t know for sure until on October 21 (maybe before, but unlikely).
The Bank of Canada last cut rates in April.
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