General Mortgage News
- Despite higher rates and tighter credit, Canadian mortgage lending volumes are up 7.7% in the past year.
- Are more subprime customers on the way? CIBC economist Benjamin Tal says personal bankruptcies could jump 15% in the next 12 months. They were already up almost 30% in September.
- “Past studies indicate that when times get tough, investment properties are the first to go into default.” – Mortgage Centre’s Peter Kinch
- “You will see a lot of smaller players going by the wayside. They just can’t get credit,” says developer Ward McAllister. “Many projects are being shelved right now.” (Journal of Commerce)
- Some alternatives to 100% financing.
- Mortgage credit tips.
- Million Dollar Journey has a primer on reverse mortgages.
- No U.S.-style mortgage meltdown here says BMO.
Housing Trends
- 13%. That’s Central 1 Credit Union’s median projected decline in BC housing prices in 2009. For 2010 they see prices falling another 5%. (Kelowna Capital News)
- “Historically, real estate prices increase by about 3% per year plus inflation.” – RE/MAX Condos Plus
- CMHC expects Canadian housing prices to rise a lusty 0.25% next year. (Financial Post)
- Montreal home prices are up 6% over last year. Tres bien!
- TREB says Toronto home prices are down 10% versus last year. (Globe & Mail)
- About 1/2 of the condo investors in downtown Toronto rent out their units. – Financial Post
- This story from Real Estate Intelligence shows that home prices in 7 provinces/territories are up year-over-year…a lot in some cases.
- “Real Estate is a local market…national stats…mean nothing.” – RE/MAX Condos Plus
- “Headline [housing price declines] reflect a current weighting for each city, which leads to a significant bias to the overall average price…the national headline number is down by close to 6% (year-over-year) last month, but if properly weighted, house prices fell by only 1%.” – CIBC economist Benjamin Tal
- “There appears to be a good chance that housing will be more affordable in late winter due to a combination of softer prices and lower mortgage rates.” – Gordon Pape
- Merrill Lynch economist David Wolf warns there is a “high correlation” between Canada’s home prices today, and those in the U.S. a few years ago. (Financial Post)
Economy
- “The Bank of Canada will likewise ease another quarter point before year-end.” – CIBC World Markets
- It’s not just the U.S. Credit markets around the globe are in desperate straights. Take the UK for example. They slashed rates 1.5% last week–which is almost unheard of. Only during the 1981 recession have they ever cut more.
- “The worst part for the economy is largely still ahead of us. The speed at which things are deteriorating is alarming.” – Scotia Capital’s Derek Holt (TheRecord.com)
Miscellaneous
- Even the Donald has financing troubles.
- The U.S. government hands out a 38% discount on mortgage payments to selected homeowners.
- 26 Ways to make your home sell faster.
Last modified: December 24, 2021
Thanks for the mention guys!
13% decline in BC!
I see why that makes headlines in the papers and on TV. However, how does “Central 1 Credit Union” get more press than CIBC’s Benjamin Tal?
Central 1 Credit Union… I’m pretty sure this is simultaneously the first and last time I’ll ever hear of them. Why post that garbage?
Hi Believe Everything…
You’ve never heard of C1 huh? Well they aren’t quite RBC, but they’re a pretty big outfit.
Central 1 Credit Union is basically the “mothership” of the B.C. and Ontario credit union systems. C1 oversees 2.8 million members and $60 billion in assets.
They know the B.C. real estate market well because they have to. It’s their business.
For what it’s worth, I don’t have a lot of faith in any economist’s long-term forecast. But we report them nonetheless because who want’s to listen to us say “no one can predict the future” all day long. LOL.
Cheers,
Rob
Ok…I’m trying to interpret this all, but I’m mortgage illiterate. Now that the BoC rate has dropped, those with variable rate mortgages are sitting pretty. Is this going to hold, or would someone be an idiot to renew into a variable again right now?
They used to be called the Credit Union central of BC. But that didn’t roll of the tongue.
They provide the memberdirect web banking software used by a lot of credit unions and TD’s easyweb website
Hi MI,
Thanks for the question. As usual, the answer depends on one’s unique situation. If, for example, you have a good I.D.E.A. (i.e. 1] income, 2] debt ratio, 3] equity, and 4] assets) it’s much more likely that a variable will makes sense for you. Add risk tolerance to that mix as well because no one knows what’s coming a year from now. All we, as mortgage planners, have to go on is history and the borrower’s profile.
Here are some links you may find of further interest…
Fixed or Variable Mortgage?
Variable or Fixed — The Research
The Case for Variable-rate Mortgages
Selling Fixed Rates
Cheers,
Rob