Click here to join our mailing list to receive the latest news and updates as they happen. Unsubscribe any time.

Home Affordability On Its Way Back

Mortgage-Affordability If TD is right, Canadian home prices will tumble 24% from their spring 2008 highs to 2010.  TD’s reasoning?  Overbuilding and speculation.

In a recent report, TD states: “This overbuilding will likely weigh on markets over the next few years.”  However, TD “(doesn’t) envision a U.S.-style crash for Canada.”  It says, “Unlike south of the border, the supply of new housing was absorbed by new owners, and Canada has more robust mortgage lending structures.”

A 24% drop would lower average home prices from their peak of $324,000, to $246,000.*

With discounted 5-year fixed mortgage rates falling from about 5.50% in April 2008 to 3.95% today, a mortgage on the average house could therefore drop from $1816 per month to $1170 per month by 2010 (assuming TD is right and that average mortgage rates stay around 4%).** 

That’s a gigantic improvement in affordability.  Barring massive unemployment, a improvement of that magnitude could very well light a fire under buyers and support the market.

Full TD Report


*  Based on CREA’s non-weighted national price average.  Arguably better price calculation methods do exist, such as weighted price averages.

**  Assumes a 25-year amortization, a 10% down payment, and a 2% insurance premium.