The British Columbia Real Estate Association predicts prime rate will start rising in the 2nd quarter 2010, and climb 0.75% by December 2010.
It also has an opinion on fixed rates. It says they’ll “edge up this year and next but remain near record lows by historical standards.”
The BCREA’s forecast calls for a 1/2% increase in 5-year fixed rates over the next 18 months.
Do you have any historical data on the BC Real Estate Association’s predictions on rate increases? 99% of what you put on this blog is relevant and useful information but what the BCREA is “predicting” is not in that category. They care about one thing — selling houses and all of the their opinions revolve around this.
Fully agree with Brian. Let’s see some of BCREA’s past forecasts.
Here are their past forecasts.
The BoC has stated that Prime will remain at 0.25% till the “end” of the 2nd Qtr 2010. If the BoC holds that view then we will not see an increase until July 2010 at the earliest. Bankers currently view that the BoC has no reason to deviate from that directive anytime soon.
Thanks for the feedback. 99% is more than we could have hoped for! :)
If one judges by forecast accuracy, that invalidates just about every economic organization in the world. Even the Bank of Canada, with the most empirical data and resources in the country, is forced to issue constant forecast revisions. Rate predictions are a tough game and a .500% batting average is par for the course.
Incidentally, if you’ve followed this site for any amount of time you know the skepticism we have of economic predictions. Nonetheless, when a reputable organization releases a mortgage-related forecast, we post it. We’re a news site and, right or wrong, people want to know what others think.
Suffice it to say, the Fox News motto always applies: “We report. You decide.”
I would agree with Rob. Take rate forecasts for what they are worth.
BCREA is no worse than CREA, CAAMP, TREB, or any of the other industry groups.
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