Scotia Says Rates May Rise Before July 2010

The bond market isn’t always right, but it’s the best predictor of future mortgage rates that we’ve got.

If history is a guide, bond yields will start rising before prime rate does.  That, says Scotia chief economist, Warren Jestin, could happen prior to June 30, 2010. 

June 30, 2010 is the last day the Bank of Canada has “committed” (conditionally) to hold rates flat.

"There's a very good chance long-term rates will head up before then," Jestin told the Post

Yields won’t move in a straight line though. Jestin says, "Very clearly, we are in a transition period, bouncing along the bottom. It will be good news one day, bad news the next, over the next few months.”

Here’s a look at how 2-year government bond yields have led the Bank of Canada in the past. With few exceptions, yields started rising over a month before the Bank of Canada hiked its overnight target.  The overnight target rate, in turn, influences prime rate.  (Click to expand chart)

Bond-Yields-vs-Prime-Rate

Date Source: Bank of Canada

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