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Despite all the economic gloom lately, each of the 11 primary dealers polled by Reuters still predict a 1/4 point rate hike at the Bank of Canada's next interest rate meeting.
Here’s a look at their overnight rate predictions for each of the remaining BoC meetings this year. (Keep in mind, today’s overnight target rate is 0.75%.)
| Dealer | Sept 8 | Oct 19 | Dec 7 |
| BoA-Merrill Lynch | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% |
| BMO Capital Mkts | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% |
| Casgrain & Co Ltd | 1.00% | 1.25% | 1.25% |
| CIBC World Mkts | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% |
| Deutsche Bank Sec. | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.25% |
| Desjardins Securities | 1.00% | 1.25% | 1.50% |
| Laurentian Bank Sec. | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% |
| National Bank | 1.00% | 1.25% | 1.50% |
| RBC Capital Mkts | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.25% |
| Scotia Capital | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% |
| TD Bank | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.25% |
|
Mean Average |
1.00% | 1.07% | 1.18% |
All this consensus among dealers isn’t swaying overnight index swap (OIS) traders, however. OIS traders are currently pegging the odds of a September 1/4 point rate hike at just 39%.
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Source: Reuters 3000; Poll date: Friday August 20, 2010
