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Despite all the economic gloom lately, each of the 11 primary dealers polled by Reuters still predict a 1/4 point rate hike at the Bank of Canada's next interest rate meeting.

Here’s a look at their overnight rate predictions for each of the remaining BoC meetings this year. (Keep in mind, today’s overnight target rate is 0.75%.)
 

Dealer Sept 8 Oct 19 Dec 7
BoA-Merrill Lynch 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
BMO Capital Mkts 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
Casgrain & Co Ltd 1.00% 1.25% 1.25%
CIBC World Mkts 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
Deutsche Bank Sec. 1.00% 1.00% 1.25%
Desjardins Securities 1.00% 1.25% 1.50%
Laurentian Bank Sec. 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
National Bank 1.00% 1.25% 1.50%
RBC Capital Mkts 1.00% 1.00% 1.25%
Scotia Capital 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
TD Bank 1.00% 1.00% 1.25%

    Mean Average

1.00% 1.07% 1.18%

All this consensus among dealers isn’t swaying overnight index swap (OIS) traders, however.  OIS traders are currently pegging the odds of a September 1/4 point rate hike at just 39%.

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Source: Reuters 3000; Poll date: Friday August 20, 2010

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