Despite all the economic gloom lately, each of the 11 primary dealers polled by Reuters still predict a 1/4 point rate hike at the Bank of Canada's next interest rate meeting.
Here’s a look at their overnight rate predictions for each of the remaining BoC meetings this year. (Keep in mind, today’s overnight target rate is 0.75%.)
Dealer | Sept 8 | Oct 19 | Dec 7 |
BoA-Merrill Lynch | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% |
BMO Capital Mkts | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% |
Casgrain & Co Ltd | 1.00% | 1.25% | 1.25% |
CIBC World Mkts | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% |
Deutsche Bank Sec. | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.25% |
Desjardins Securities | 1.00% | 1.25% | 1.50% |
Laurentian Bank Sec. | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% |
National Bank | 1.00% | 1.25% | 1.50% |
RBC Capital Mkts | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.25% |
Scotia Capital | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% |
TD Bank | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.25% |
Mean Average |
1.00% | 1.07% | 1.18% |
All this consensus among dealers isn’t swaying overnight index swap (OIS) traders, however. OIS traders are currently pegging the odds of a September 1/4 point rate hike at just 39%.
______________________________________________________
Source: Reuters 3000; Poll date: Friday August 20, 2010