The year started with a jump in home sales in Canada’s largest urban centres, with annual gains exceeding 30% in Toronto, Vancouver and Calgary.
Regional real estate reported surging home sales in January, even though volumes are still below historical norms. January also saw an increase in new listings as we head towards the traditionally busier spring homebuying market.
Average prices were also up in most centres, except for Toronto where they slipped 1% year-over-year.
But experts see sales continuing to grow throughout the year, particularly with the prospect of falling interest rates.
Activity to pick up further in the second half of 2024
“Once the Bank of Canada actually starts cutting its policy rate, likely in the second half of 2024, expect home sales to pick up even further,” said Jennifer Pearce, president of the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB).
“There will be more competition between buyers in 2024 as demand picks up and the supply of listings remains constrained,” she added.
RBC economist Robert Hogue predicts a slower first half of the year, before lower interest rates begin to generate an increase in both sales and average prices.
“We expect slow activity and softer prices to persist in the early part of the year as the Bank of Canada maintains its policy rate at a two-decade high and home ownership stays out of reach for many potential buyers,” he wrote. “But, a pivot toward rate cuts mid-year will get the wheels turning faster over the second half or perhaps even sooner.”
Hogue says improved sales prospects are likely to attract more sellers to the market, alongside mortgage renewal payment shocks.
RBC currently forecasts national home sales to rebound by 9.2% year-over-year to 484,000 units in 2024 followed by another 16% gain in 2024. That would partially reverse sharp declines of 25% in 2022 and 11.1% in 2023.
Regional housing market roundup
Here’s a look at the January statistics from some of the country’s largest regional real estate boards:
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Greater Toronto Area
| January 2024 | YoY % Change | |
| Sales | 4,223 | +37% |
| Benchmark price (all housing types) | $1,026,703 | -1% |
| New listings | 8,312 | +6.1% |
| Active listings | 10,093 | +8.5% |
“Once the Bank of Canada actually starts cutting its policy rate, likely in the second half of 2024, expect home sales to pick up even further,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.
Source: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB)
Greater Vancouver Area
| January 2024 | YoY % Change | |
| Sales | 1,427 | +38.5% |
| Benchmark price (all housing types) | $1,161,300 | +4.2% |
| New listings | 3,788 | +14.5% |
| Active listings | 8,633 | +9.8% |
“It’s hard to believe that January sales figures came in so strong after such a quiet December, which saw many buyers and sellers delaying major decisions,” said Andrew Lis, REBGV Director of Economics and Data Analytics.
“If sellers don’t step off the sidelines soon, the competition among buyers could tilt the market back into sellers’ territory as the available inventory struggles to keep pace with demand,” he added.
Source: Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV)
Montreal Census Metropolitan Area
| January 2024 | YoY % Change | |
| Sales | 2,077 | +18% |
| Median Price (single-family detached) | $535,000 | +7% |
| Median Price (condo) | $390,000 | +5% |
| New listings | 5,410 | +22% |
| Active listings | 16,838 | +16% |
“The solid performance of sales for the start of the year is essentially attributable to more encouraging prospects regarding interest rates,” said Charles Brant, QPAREB Market Analysis Director.
“However, there are several headwinds to a more decisive resumption of transactional activity,” he added. “We are referring to the sharp slowdown in economic activity and the resulting uncertainties that influence the propensity of households to purchase a home.”
Calgary
| January 2024 | YoY % Change | |
| Sales | 1,650 | +37.7% |
| Benchmark price (all housing types) | $572,300 | +10% |
| New listings | 2,137 | +15.4% |
| Active listings | 2,150 | -12.3% |
“Supply challenges have been a persistent problem since last year. This month’s gain in new listings has helped provide options to potential purchasers, supporting sales growth,” said CREB Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “However, the growth in sales prevented any significant adjustments in supply, keeping conditions tight and supporting further price growth.”
Source: Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB)
Ottawa
| January 2024 | YoY % Change | |
| Sales | 629 | +16.5% |
| Benchmark price (all housing types) | $621,600 | +3.2% |
| New listings | 1,271 | +7.3% |
| Active listings | 1,961 | +4.5% |
“Ottawa’s market activity is seeing positive gains over last year but it’s still a relatively quiet market even by pre-pandemic standards,” said OREB President Curtis Fillier. “This tells us that buyers are back out there looking, but still approaching cautiously.”
Source: Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB)
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Last modified: February 7, 2024
