This slight miss followed a 0.3% increase in October, with 13 of 20 sectors experiencing declines in November. Goods-producing industries dropped 0.6%, while services-producing industries fell 0.1%, ending five consecutive months of growth.
Sectors that saw the largest pull backs were mining, quarrying and oil & gas extraction (-1.6%), support activities for mining and oil & gas extraction (-4.6%), utilities (-3.6%) and transportation and warehousing (-1.3%).
StatCan notes that the postal service sub-sector fell 20.3% in November, during which time approximately 55,000 postal workers went on strike starting November 15.
Real estate and rental leasing increased 0.3% in November, marking the seventh increase in a row. The construction sector also saw an uptick of 0.7%. Residential building construction rose 1.8% for the fourth consecutive month.
December GDP projected to rise, with February 1 tariffs in focus
After November’s GDP decline, December is poised for a rebound.
“Statistics Canada’s early estimate for December GDP is +0.2%, with retail activity providing a big helping hand due to the tax holiday,” writes BMO’s Benjamin Reitzes, adding, “However, there was weakness in housing, transportation/warehousing and wholesale.”
Marc Ercolao, an economist at TD Economics, points out that the economy is “tracking on point” with the Bank of Canada‘s recent projection of 1.8% annual growth for Q4. StatCan’s advance information estimate will be updated on February 28 when the official GDP release for December 2024’s GDP is released.
Despite November’s weakness, GDP has currently taken a backseat to the immediate threat of U.S. tariffs, according to economists.
“This is all old news…as everyone is on Tariff Watch at the moment,” writes Reitzes. “That’s all that matters near-term, whether we like it or not.”
As for the impact on future monetary policy, Ercolao believes the Bank of Canada “has its work cut out for them” for future decisions.
“After slashing interest rates this week, they will now wait for further details about Trump’s tariff implementation plan, which will come as early as tomorrow,” he wrote. “While we think the Bank will step to the sidelines at their March meeting, expedited rate cuts may be in the cards should a worst-case trade war ensue.”
Bank of Canada Benjamin Reitzes economic data economic indicators economic news gdp Marc Ercolao statcan statcan GDP statistics canada statistics Canada GDP tariffs
Last modified: January 31, 2025