While markets largely expect the central bank to hold its policy rate steady on Wednesday, some economists see enough downside pressure to justify a quarter-point rate cut.
Fresh inflation and housing data early in the week could tip the balance—or reinforce the Bank’s cautious wait-and-see stance.
Tuesday
March inflation expected to tick higher
Statistics Canada will release March’s consumer price index (CPI) on Tuesday. February’s reading came in at 2.6%, just above expectations. Markets are expecting a further slowdown, and any downside surprise could reinforce the case for rate cuts as early as June. The inflation release will land just a day before the Bank of Canada’s policy decision.
The big question is whether the Bank’s preferred core measures show any sign of easing after nearly a year of persistent pressure.
Home sales data to test spring momentum
On Tuesday, the Canadian Real Estate Association will release national home sales data for March.
February saw a 10.4% year-over-year decline in sales, while the average home price rose 3.3%. March’s figures will show whether activity remained subdued heading into the spring market, or if buyers began returning amid growing expectations for rate cuts.
Housing starts expected to rebound
Housing starts for March are also due Tuesday. Economists expect a rise to 241,400 annualized units, up from 229,000 in February. That would mark the first monthly gain since December.
Wednesday
Bank of Canada likely to hold, but with a dovish lean.
The Bank of Canada announces its latest rate decision on Wednesday. Markets are pricing in roughly 40% chance of no change, with the overnight target rate remaining at 2.75%.
Scotiabank calls it a “nervous hold,” noting strong cases on both sides. The hold argument rests on persistent core inflation, rising business input costs, and tariff-related price pressures.
But recent signs of weakening growth—including falling commodity prices, soft confidence data, and job losses—are fuelling expectations for a June cut. The Bank’s Monetary Policy Report and Governor Macklem’s press conference will be closely parsed for any shift in tone.
Thursday
Election debates add to the noise
Two federal leaders’ debates are also scheduled this week—one in French on Wednesday, one in English on Thursday.
With polling averages showing the Liberals firmly in the lead, Scotiabank says it’s “Carney’s to lose.”
Friday
Markets close for Good Friday
Markets will be closed Friday, but by week’s end, mortgage professionals and market watchers will have a much clearer picture of whether inflation is cooling fast enough—and whether the Bank of Canada is ready to move.
Week of April 14, 2025
| Country | Date | Time (ET) | Release | Previous reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | Mon. April 14 | 8:30 a.m. | Wholesale Trade (February) | $85.1B (+1.2%) |
| Wed. March 26 | 8:30 a.m. | New Motor Vehicle Sales for Feb. (expected) | +9.5% (2024 vs 2023) |
| Tues. April 15 | 8:15 a.m. | Housing Starts (March) | 229k (-4% MoM) |
| Tues. April 15 | 8:30 a.m. | Consumer Price Index (March) | +2.6% |
| Tues. April 15 | 8:30 a.m. | Manufacturing Sales & Orders (Feb.) | $73B (+1.2% MoM) |
| Tues. April 15 | 9 a.m. | Existing Home Sales from CREA (March) | Sales: -10.4% Price: +3.3% YoY |
 | Tues. April 15 | 8:30 a.m. | Trade Price Indices (March) | Deficit: $122.7B (-6.1%) |
| Wed. April 16 | 9:45 a.m. | Bank of Canada Policy Announcement | 2.75% |
| Wed. April 16 | 9:45 a.m. | BoC Monetary Policy Report | |
| Wed. April 16 | 8 p.m. | Federal leaders’ debate in French | |
| Wed. April 16 | 8:30 a.m. | Retail Sales (March) | +3.8% YoY |
| Wed. April 16 | 9:15 a.m. | Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (March) | +0.7% MoM |
| Wed. April 16 | 10 a.m. | NAHB Housing Index (April) | 39 (-3 pts) |
| Wed. April 16 | 10 a.m. | Business Inventories (February) | +0.3% MoM |
| Thurs. April 17 | 8:30 a.m. | International Securities Transactions (Feb.) | $7.9B |
| Thurs. April 17 | 8:30 a.m. | Monthly Credit Aggregates (Feb.) | |
| Thurs. April 17 | 7 p.m. | Federal leaders’ debate (English) | |
| Thurs. April 17 | 8:30 a.m. | Initial Claims (April 12) | |
| Thurs. April 17 | 8:30 a.m. | Housing Starts, Building Permits (March) | Permits: +1.2% Starts: +11.2% MoM |
| Fri. April 18 | Good Friday – Markets closed |
Bank of Canada CPI inflation crea Dashboard economic data economic indicators economics calendar EconoScope Editor's pick home sales housing starts inflation rate decision
Last modified: April 15, 2025
