
economic forecasts


2024 recession now expected to be “shallower and shorter,” says Oxford Economics
While Canada’s economy is still expected to enter a technical recession this year, Oxford Economics now believes the downturn will be less severe than initially thought.

Strong U.S. inflation could delay rate cuts on both sides of the border
While the Bank of Canada left its benchmark rate unchanged as expected today, markets instead turned their attention to today’s hot U.S. inflation report.

Market participants still expect the first Bank of Canada rate cut in April
Despite push-back from the Bank of Canada against aggressive rate-cut predictions, a majority of influential economists and analysts still expect rates to start falling by April.

Recession expected to drive home prices down another 10%: Oxford
In its economic and housing outlook released today, Oxford Economics is forecasting a mild recession by the end of the year will lead to an additional 10% decline in average house prices by early next year.

Weak GDP data means Bank of Canada rate hikes could be “over and done”
Canada’s economy slowed more than expected in the second quarter, raising the likelihood that the Bank of Canada will leave rates unchanged at next week’s policy meeting.

Canadian recession imminent and could last through the first half of 2024: Desjardins
Despite Canada’s economy outperforming expectations over the last few quarters, signs are starting to suggest a slowdown is on the horizon, according to a report from Desjardins.

Despite the BoC’s growth outlook, Canadians are bracing for recession: TransUnion
While the Bank of Canada’s latest growth forecasts remain positive for the year ahead, Canadians aren’t taking any chances.

National Bank is cautiously optimistic interest rates will hold steady — and eventually drop — in 2023.
National Bank economists argued in a recent webcast that all signs point to a soft landing by mid-year, with interest rates remaining in their current position.

“Sticky” core inflation raises the odds of a January rate hike: economists
Canada’s headline inflation reading continued to fall in November, but core inflation rose, increasing the potential for an additional Bank of Canada rate hike in January.