
housing market outlook


Housing and interest rate forecasts for 2025
As we reflect on 2024, it was a year of resilience and adjustment for Canada’s housing and mortgage market, marked by the Bank of Canada’s pivot to rate cuts after two years of relentless hikes, offering long-awaited relief to borrowers.

Spring housing market surge unlikely as affordability, cost of living weigh on buyers
economists say a rebound awaits the national housing market — but don’t expect a big surge just yet.

Single-detached housing starts down 25% from last year: CMHC
The number of new single-detached houses under construction in the first half of 2023 was down 25% compared to last year.

Recession expected to drive home prices down another 10%: Oxford
In its economic and housing outlook released today, Oxford Economics is forecasting a mild recession by the end of the year will lead to an additional 10% decline in average house prices by early next year.

Housing affordability eased slightly in Q1, but “incredibly challenging” conditions persist: RBC
The Bank of Canada’s temporary rate pause in the first half of the year helped ease affordability in the first quarter, but only nominally.

Canadian covered bonds retain high ratings despite market conditions: Fitch
With the current combination of high interest rates, inflationary pressures, and higher mortgage payments, one would expect Canada’s structured bonds to decline in rating.

A rebound in Canada’s housing market contributed to the BoC’s decision to hike rates in June
Ongoing excess demand in the economy, including a recent rebound in existing home sales, contributed to the Bank of Canada’s decision to hike interest rates earlier this month.

OSFI considering the need for additional regulations on existing mortgages
Canada’s banking regulator says it is considering whether to extend the scope of its mortgage guidelines to include existing mortgages. In its second Annual Risk

2023 housing and interest rate forecasts
Rising interest rates in 2022 drove home sales and prices lower, but what does 2023 hold in store?